seeing bubbles

…Once again, China has surpassed the United States in a key economic number. No, it’s not GDP. It’s art. In four years, China has zoomed past us from the world’s fourth-biggest fine art scene to the world’s largest auction market for art. Just last week, Chinese buyers helped Sotheby’s and Christie’s set (yet another) record by bidding up the price of a Chinese vase estimated to fetch $800 all the way to $18 million — a 22,000% mark up!

That’s the kind of fever pitch the Economist captured when it reported “astonishing bidding” by wealthy Chinese across the globe as “record after record has fallen away as newly wealthy collectors from mainland China have piled into salerooms in London, New York and Hong Kong.”

China’s meteoric rise in the global auction world might be a sign of well-earned wealth. But periods of record bidding are scarily accurate bubble predictors, according to Vikram Mansharamani, author of the Boombustology. They’re a “symptom of overconfidence and hubris” as a newly rich society spends its easy money with exponential flamboyance.

It’s not hard to see signs of froth and fake wealth in China. Housing investment hit the inauspicious mark of 6% of GDP, the same level the U.S. touched in 2006 before our bubble burst. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has spent lavishly on ghost towns like Qungbashi (a city built for 1.5 million residents and occupied by only 20,000) and ghost malls like New South China Mall — built to handle 1,500 tenants but home to only a few…

via The Art of Bubbles: How Sotheby’s Predicts the World Economy – Derek Thompson – Business – The Atlantic.

Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s